Early Predictions for the Central Oregon Housing Market 2023

Area Pricing has hit a Plateau, and market trends are flat for Bend, Redmond, Sisters and even down to the Sunriver area. This real estate market shift and cooling is largely due to rising interest rates, record-high inflation, and broader global and economic uncertainties. Consumer confidence is low, and many are putting off large purchases, such as housing and moving, for the next year or so. 

Bucking this downward trend, yet at a much slower pace, is the Central Oregon housing market. The Bend, Redmond, Sisters and parts of the Sunriver markets, once analyzed, will experience modest price appreciation into 2023 of between 3 to 7%, respectively. However, make no mistake, the 2023 market will be quite “bearish” compared to the recent past. 

  • Inventory is up in Bend, Redmond and Sisters. 

  • Since May, more than 60% of the inventory have had price reductions. 

  • Less than 3% of off market listings have been relisted. 

  • Action in the market is still showing a slight seller’s advantage. If this trend continues, pricing in 2023 may climb, but ever so slowly. 


Bend

The median list price for a single family home has fallen steadily since August, down 10% in total over that past 90 days to $648,000. With the inventory rising and falling equally, week to week, there is a great opportunity for buyers looking to move to Bend. There are 459 residential listings currently For Sale, which is the highest number of houses For Sale since before the pandemic in Jan of 2020. 

 

Redmond

The median list price in Redmond when compared to this same time, in 2021 is flat. In fact, the list prices for homes in the upper to lower ranges are unchanged, from this time last year. The top tier is where the values have felt the greatest pressure, and those asking prices are down about 12% from the November 2021 pricing. There is much more inventory available now as well, with the total number of houses for sale at the highest point it has been since July of 2020. With the average days on market now at 2.5 months, there is clear evidence as to why more than 50% of the listing properties have had price reductions. Again, look to the 2023 market to be quite bearish in terms of market values and asking prices in Redmond.


Sisters

The inventory in Sisters really tells the story. Up 73% since March of this year, the market in Sisters has stalled and is bloated. The market time for a sale is now 90 days, with the median list price falling some 19% since mid-September. The market in Sisters is unique in that it is one that is quite seasonal and is a destination spot, versus one of occupation or civic draw. Sisters is a small town, and boasts a country, rural vibe with all of the tangible small town, county cultural elements. It’s that “feel” that will continue to draw people to consider a move to Sisters. And with market conditions as they are now, this may be the perfect “purchase window” for those considering the move. 


Sunriver

Still as popular as ever, Sunriver and the Resort Community that it promotes has not been untouched by the changing market. Even though there are only 15 active listings now, the market time for sales to occur has ballooned from 28 days in July to 65 days. The average list price has actually increased to $1.1 million from a low of $897,000 back in April. Suffice to say, the cost for the opportunity to buy in Sunriver will always be a part of the price that buyers will pay. As with the other cities discussed in this post, expect next year to be bearish on pricing, with a good amount of inventory to choose from. If a buyer is serious about making the purchase in Sunriver, the window of opportunity is clearly open. 

 

Summary


In summary, the market for Central Oregon housing has changed. Gone are the days of multiple offers, short listing periods, little to no improvements and no concessions. Now more than ever, a keen eye on the details necessary to merchandise property and a mind set that is open to a process that accounts for and accepts the reality that negotiations and concessions will be more the norm, than the exception. 

For those selling property, whatever the reason will need to be represented by a Realtor who possesses a deep understanding of trends and factors affecting the market weekly, not historically. Setting pricing will become more important than ever now, as the asking price will be a major component of marketing the property. 

For those who want to buy, the window of opportunity is wide open. The next 12 to 18 months may be the relief many have been hoping for. Be prepared now to step into the market ready to act. Have your finances in order. Approval for mortgage financing is still a critical piece of the Central Oregon housing market. Making an offer to buy needs to come with the assurance that you as a buyer can close, and financing is a major factor in conveying that to a seller. 

This market cycle will pass, and Central Oregon will come out of it strong. Everyone needs a place to live, and Central Oregon is still one of the best places to call home. 


Posted by Mark Ossinger on

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